DESPITE our inclination for conspiracy theories, nothing was made of the leading part played by the Americans in the latest diplomatic efforts to get the talks started after years of Uncle Sam showing complete indifference to the problem. Yet without the direct involvement of the US government it is doubtful we would have had this week’s breakthrough on the joint declaration which had eluded the two sides for four months.
Nobody has asked why the US has been showing such interest in a Cyprus settlement in the last few months after nine years of completely giving up on it. Washington had much more serious and urgent issues to deal with, and it had no intention of wasting more time and resources on Cyprus after the rejection of the Annan plan. Then, at some point last year, the US changed its policy having concluded that maintenance of the status quo, with which it was perfectly happy for nine years, was no longer acceptable and a settlement became an objective again.
There is no State Department rule stipulating that an attempt to solve the Cyprus problem would be made once every 10 years, nor did US officials decide to hatch a conspiracy to hand over the island to Turkey. The game-changer has been the discovery of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean, the exploitation of which requires regional stability and regional co-operation. A settlement would contribute to this as it paves the way for joint ventures in which Turkey, Israel and Cyprus would participate. The simplistic plans for a Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt energy alliance to counter Turkey – advanced by the hard-line nationalists at the Cyprus foreign ministry – have been exposed as utter nonsense.
The US would not have undertaken the initiative for a settlement if it did not serve Israel’s interests. Israel-Turkey relations have improved significantly in recent months, Benjamin Netanyahu’s apology for the Mavi Marmara incident and this week’s deal for compensation by Israel of the victims were an example of the steps taken; El Al will resume flights to Turkey which were stopped in 2007 over security disagreements. This gradual normalisation of relations has allowed companies from the two countries to discuss the possibility of establishing an underground pipeline taking natural gas from Israel’s Leviathan field to Turkey. This may explain Noble Energy’s loss of interest in the setting up of a costly LNG terminal at Vassilikos – if Israel does not use it would it not be viable – and, together with its partner Delek, having talks with Turkish energy companies.
Writing on the Bloomberg website former US Ambassador Matt Bryza has mentioned the possibility of such a pipeline passing through the Cyprus continental shelf or over Cyprus territory, even though he acknowledged the need for a settlement. We cannot go into all the options being discussed but we mention the above as an explanation for the sudden interest of the US in Cyprus settlement. This would be part of grander designs aimed at bringing America’s two closest allies in the region into a strategic, mutually beneficial partnership, that may also act as a counter to Russia’s growing influence – Russian companies have bee
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